CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-05-30T12:53:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-05-30T12:53ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/39167/-1
CME Note: Hazy CME first seen to the SE in STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2025-05-30T12:53Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this CME appears to be continued dimming and field line movement following a wide eruption associated with an M3.4 class flare from AR 4100. These features can be seen clearly in SDO AIA 211. This CME overlaps with earlier CME: 2025-05-30T06:38Z which is associated with the M3.4 flare, where as this event is more associated with the subsequent dimming following the flare. Arrival signature: characterized by a sharp significant jump in B_total from ~7nT to above 24nT and by jump in solar wind speed from the already elevated (by the preceding coronal high speed stream) ~700 km/s to over 1100 km/s. Ion temperature also has a significant temporary increase and there is a rather mediocre increase in ion density, followed by a drop in density. There is a smooth rotation of magnetic field components seen further in the signature (after 2025-06-01T12Z), indicating possible start of a flux rope (there are also two more potential flux ropes seen in the 2-day solar wind signature). This CME would likely have been swept by the front of the following, much faster, 2025-05-31T00:15Z CME, the combined front arriving early.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-06-01T05:22Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-06-01T19:30Z (-12.1h, +12.1h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 90.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: IZMIRAN
Prediction Method Note:
Initial CME velocity = 1300 km/s Background SW velocity = 600 km/s Heliolongitude = 10 deg Predicted transit time = 43.9 ± 12.1 h Predicted Vmax = 730 ± 170 km/sLead Time: 23.37 hour(s)
Difference: -14.13 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Nataly Shlyk (IZMIRAN) on 2025-05-31T06:00Z
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